Three possible scenarios for the Russia-Ukraine crisis

(Dan Tri) – After recognizing the independence of two separatist regions of Ukraine, Russia on February 24 continued to launch a special military campaign there.

Russian President Vladimir Putin (Photo: Reuters).

Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier this week signed a decree recognizing the `independence and sovereignty` of the two separatist regions of Lugansk and Donetsk in Donbass, Eastern Ukraine and ordered the readiness to send peacekeeping forces there.

On the morning of February 24, Mr. Putin approved a special military operation in Donbass to support two separatist regions in Eastern Ukraine.

Below are predictions about three possible scenarios for this crisis.

First, according to some experts, Russia may just stop at sending troops to territories controlled by separatist forces in Eastern Ukraine, while continuing to pressure Kiev in other ways.

Experts say that it is likely that Moscow’s next steps will be to put pressure on Ukraine in various ways such as blockading the country’s ports along the Black Sea instead of trying to immediately control many regions.

Meanwhile, Russia has achieved some major goals such as forcing NATO allies to publicly admit they will not send forces to defend Ukraine, and getting a commitment from Belarus to allow a force

Reuters quoted an expert as saying that Belarus is an important link that helps change the balance in the region… It completely changes the way NATO must protect the Baltic countries.

Russian forces near the city of Golovchino in satellite images taken on February 23.

Second, Russia can seek to expand the territory controlled by Ukrainian separatists but can still limit the scale of the conflict in the East.

However, President Putin said on February 22 that Russia recognizes the independence of the entire administrative territory of Donetsk and Lugansk provinces before secession, meaning that includes the territory that the Kiev government is controlling.

Reuters quoted experts as saying that one of the targets that Russia could target is Mariupol, the main port in Eastern Ukraine.

However, the scenario of expanding territorial control in Eastern Ukraine is considered to not bring many strategic benefits to Russia.

Third, Russia could launch a large-scale military campaign against Ukraine.

After ordering a special military operation in Eastern Ukraine on the morning of February 24, Mr. Putin continued to make the world `guess` about Russia’s next actions in the coming days.